The numbers are staggering. USD 2.7 Trillion by 2035? That’s what the more optimistic analysts are hoping for the state of the blockchain gaming and NFT market. A 62.8% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)? It sounds like a gold rush. And in many ways, it is. Hiding under the glossy surface of digital gold lies a deep dark cave of doom. This threat might erode the foundational tenets that have made blockchain technology one of the most exciting innovations. Yet are we losing decentralization at the feet of the exponential growth god?

Chasing Trillions, Losing Our Soul?

We're told about the revolutionary potential of NFTs in gaming: true ownership, interoperability, and player-driven economies. Look closer. Who's really benefiting from this projected boom? It's the large gaming companies, the VC firms, and the established players like Sky Mavis (Axie Infinity), Animoca Brands, and Dapper Labs. They’re making walled gardens with their own proprietary blockchains. In these walled gardens, they dictate the terms of engagement, the IP—and in the end—the revenue.

Think of it like this: remember the early days of the internet? A colorful, vibrant, and tumultuous ecosystem of open protocols and decentralized communities, colliding and innovating. That’s how tech titans like Facebook, Google, and Amazon monopolized their respective industries. While all of the aforementioned services are undoubtedly valuable, they represented an unprecedented centralization of power and data. Are we fated to fall into the same cycle with blockchain gaming?

The initial promise of blockchain was to end that cycle, to return power back to the people and form genuinely decentralized systems. If we’re not careful, this trillion-dollar market will take us all the way back to square one. In the process, we’d lose any hope for the vision of an open, interoperable metaverse. Otherwise, we risk a future ruled by corporate-controlled fiefdoms, each vying for our attention and our digital wallets.

Regulatory Capture's Looming Shadow

The amount of venture capital pouring into the blockchain gaming space is without question. And with that money comes influence. Few small businesses have the time or money to contest these shifts, wielding far more influence over governments and regulators, bending the legal landscape to their whims. This isn’t done with malice, but it’s a very real threat.

Consider a regulatory environment that clearly benefits the incumbents, putting up barriers that give the advantage to larger, less nimble – perhaps even less innovative – megaprojects. Imagine compliance requirements that are so cost prohibitive that independent developers simply can’t afford it, essentially building a moat around entry. This is not merely conjecture, but rather a widely chronicled development in industry after industry.

We need to ask ourselves: who will be writing the rules of the game? Will the community developers and player developers get its own jump on things! Or will it be the deep-pocketed corporations who want to game the system for the biggest profits. The answer to that question is going to decide the future of blockchain gaming.

Play-to-Earn or Work-to-Grind?

The “Play-to-Earn” (P2E) model as a whole is a brand new concept. It puts them in control of being able to make a living playing the game they love. For example, as constructed, it certainly delivered on that promise. That’s particularly true in developing countries, where individuals can have a tough time finding other sources of income.

Let's be honest: in many P2E games, the "play" aspect is often secondary to the "earn" aspect. Players are encouraged to get on a treadmill for days on end, completing menial tasks just to have a chance at making a few bucks. Digital fun is increasingly less about enjoyment in a free time economy, and more about digital labor.

Furthermore, these economies are often unsustainable. When new players cease to come on board, the asset value collapses, often leaving those early adopters holding worthless assets. Advertised so often as the future of gaming, could it instead be the most advanced form of exploitation ever created?

It’s time we make the game and play experience the priority again. Whether or not the best blockchain games are profitable, they should be fun and engaging above all else. Ultimately, the “earn” part should just be icing on the cake – not the main motivator.

Now imagine if we created games that are actually fun. Instead of tokenomics, let’s take the pressure off and quit propping up their value through deception.

As you may be aware, I’m a huge believer in the transformative potential of blockchain technology. With this new understanding comes a recognition of its vast potential to empower citizens, spur innovation, and build more equitable systems. I'm a realist. I believe that technology is a great and powerful tool. Like all tools, it can be used for both great and terrible things.

We need to:

The future of blockchain gaming is not written in stone. It's up to us to shape it. Don’t get distracted by hyperbole of a trillion-dollar market. Never lose sight of the basic underlying principles that make this technology so awesome. Together, let’s create a future where blockchain gaming is genuinely decentralized, equitable, and, most importantly, enjoyable. Or else, the fatal flaw will be our own lack of vision.

  • Prioritize decentralization: Support open-source platforms, decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), and projects that prioritize community governance.
  • Demand transparency: Hold developers accountable for their tokenomics and their long-term sustainability plans.
  • Advocate for responsible regulation: Support policies that protect innovation and prevent monopolies, while also addressing potential risks like fraud and exploitation.
  • Focus on fun: Demand games that are enjoyable to play, regardless of their financial incentives.

The future of blockchain gaming is not predetermined. It's up to us to shape it. Let's not let the lure of a trillion-dollar market blind us to the fundamental principles that make this technology so powerful. Let's build a future where blockchain gaming is truly decentralized, equitable, and, above all, fun. Otherwise, the fatal flaw will be our own short-sightedness.

Failure to act now risks losing the web3 future!