The figures may not be what you think As the saying goes, the numbers don’t lie. Immutable’s Q1 2025 report creates a narrative that’s at once very positive and seriously alarming—and genuinely gets me scared. Immutable has bragging rights to a 5.7% quarter-over-quarter increase in average daily transactions on Immutable zkEVM. A more in-depth look at the underlying NFT data reveals a disturbing trend. Total sales volume for NFTs has fallen by 1.6%. A whopping 99% of that volume is driven by Guild of Guardians (GoG) NFTs, coupled with a steep decline in active buyers and sellers. This isn’t indeed stability, as we found this is truly a house of cards that are just waiting with the right gust of wind.
Guild of Guardians The Only King?
Think of a chess game in which you just decided to only pay attention to your queen. She’s super strong — what do you do when your opponent Stan Lees her? That's precisely the scenario Immutable is facing. Despite Immutable having an impressive ecosystem of more than 500 games, the NFT market figures are telling a different tale. Ninety-nine percent of all NFT sales volume originating from a single game? That's not diversification; it's an existential risk.
A valid question here is what occurs if Guild of Guardians shouldn’t be as good as marketed. What happens if some other game comes along and just takes all of its players away? The whole Immutable NFT universe might fall down a flight of stairs. What’s been the reaction from other game developers to wanting to develop on Immutable? It’s difficult to make that argument when one title so completely dominates the landscape. Probably not. This is not healthy competition, this is market capture by a single player, and it discourages innovation and growth.
There are concerns about what the actual value proposition of owning NFTs is going to be, given this concentration within the Immutable ecosystem. Is the value of these NFTs completely dependent on a game that is still in development? If yes, then are they really digital assets at all, or simply more complicated in-game items? We need to turn and consider this question. Are we actually creating a decentralized future? Or are we just building centralized gaming economies on the blockchain, again.
Where Did All The Players Go?
This huge drop in active buyers and active sellers is an ominous canary in the coal mine. Average daily NFT sellers were down 14.9%, average daily buyers down 17.8%. Additionally, transaction fees on Immutable zkEVM, though driving higher transaction volume, grew 28.8% QoQ. This is where things get complicated, and where the Immutable Passport gas fee subsidization really shines.
Immutable is still subsidizing gas fees to make entry easier, but that’s great and should get the credit it deserves. Is it sustainable? And even more importantly, is it covering up deeper issues. Are people using the ecosystem in genuine and productive ways, or are they just benefiting from the lack of transaction costs?
This decrease in active members is troubling and shows that the ecosystem is not naturally attracting or retaining users. Maybe it really is that their content isn’t engaging enough, or perhaps onboarding is just too many steps in the weeds for the typical user. Either way, hoping to use subsidies to support what can’t stand on its own is a stopgap that risks making the long-term outcome absolutely catastrophic. It’s similar to what I see with developing countries just depending on foreign aid, rather than creating the proper infrastructures.
Building For the Future, Or Just Today?
For starters, the company will have to diversify its NFT offerings and find ways to attract power users across demographic lines. Here are a few ideas:
- Support Emerging Artists: Invest in programs that onboard and support artists from diverse backgrounds, especially those from regions like South Asia, where there's immense creative talent but limited access to global markets.
- Promote New Game Genres: Actively seek out and support game developers working on genres beyond the dominant RPG model. Think strategy games, simulations, and even social experiences.
- Innovative NFT Mechanics: Push the boundaries of what NFTs can do. Explore fractionalized ownership, dynamic NFTs that evolve over time, and NFTs that unlock unique experiences or content.
For Immutable, the step toward growth is going to be about moving from short term profits to long term sustainability. It has so much more to do, including creating a highly inclusive and creative ecosystem that allows all creators and users to be successful. This isn’t purely a money-making endeavor, it’s an opportunity to develop a more sustainable future for gaming and digital ownership.
| Metric | Q1 2025 Trend | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| NFT Sales Volume | Slight Decrease | Potential fragility of the ecosystem. |
| Guild of Guardians Dominance | 99% | Over-reliance on a single game. |
| Active Buyers/Sellers | Decreasing | Lack of organic user engagement. |
| Transaction Fees | Increasing | Cost barrier to entry, sustainability issues. |
My strong hope is that Immutable is heeding these alarm bells. I genuinely pull for these guys as I want to see them succeed, but they’ve got some serious re-strategizing to do before it’s too late. While there is continued growth on the current path, it’s the kind of growth that more resembles a sugar high. We all know what comes next!
I truly hope Immutable is paying attention to these warning signs. I want to see them succeed, but they need to change their strategy before it's too late. The current path, while showing some growth, feels like a sugar rush, and we all know what happens after that.
